Minimum Capital Required to Start Day Trading Forex

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Recommend LOT size

Hello, Im starting forex daily trading with 1000$ capital with 1:100 leverage. What js the recommended size lot i should use for every trade and how many position should I open per day? Thank yoh
submitted by glassofwhiskeey to Forex [link] [comments]

Reddit Forex Scalping: 4 Strategies To Make Money Trading Forex For Newbies

Reddit Forex Scalping: 4 Strategies To Make Money Trading Forex For Newbies

4 Forex and Stocks Scalping Strategies Reddit

We take a look at scalping trading strategies, as well as some useful indicators.
https://preview.redd.it/rb33l4c42nw51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c225b90045dcd566f5a85e09cf51d887a1b69ed7

What does scalping mean?

Scalping is a type of trading strategy designed to profit from small price changes since the benefits of these transactions are obtained quickly and once an operation has become profitable. All forms of trading require discipline, but because the number of trades is so large, and the profits from each trade are so small, a scalper must rigorously stick to their trading system, to avoid large losses that could eliminate dozens. successful operations.
The scalper traders: they will take small profits to take advantage of the gains as they appear. The goal is a successful trading strategy by means of a large number of profitable trades, rather than a few successful trades with large profits.
The scalping of the idea of a better risk exposure as the current time each operation is quite short, which reduces the risk of an adverse event that causes a big move. Furthermore, it is considered that smaller movements are easier to achieve than larger movements and that smaller movements are more frequent than larger ones.
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The best scalping strategies

  1. Stochastic Oscillator Strategy
  2. Moving average strategy
  3. Parabolic SAR Indicator Strategy
  4. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Strategy

Reddit Forex Scalping Strategies:

1- Scalping trading using the stochastic oscillator

Scalping can be achieved by using the stochastic oscillator. The term stochastic refers to the current price point relative to its range over a recent period of time. When comparing the price of a security with its recent range, a stochastic tries to provide potential changes. The scalping using said oscillator aims to capture the movements of a market trend, ie, one that moves up or down accordingly. Prices tend to close near the extremes of the recent range before a change occurs, as in the example seen below:
https://preview.redd.it/7wy3ixui2nw51.png?width=1397&format=png&auto=webp&s=91f50d685dd4841015c51322cee9fb90701aad33
the chart above, for Brent over a three minute period, we can see that the price rises even higher, and the lows in the stochastic (marked with arrows) provide entry points for long trades, when the black line of% K is crosses over with the red dotted line of% D. The operation is exited when the stochastic reaches the maximum value of its range, above 80, when a bearish convergence appears, when the line of% K crosses below with% D.
Rather, short positions would be used in a downtrend market, as in the example below. This time, instead of 'buying dips', we are 'selling raises'. Therefore, we will look for a bearish convergence in the direction of the trend, as highlighted below:
https://preview.redd.it/y3qqvejs2nw51.png?width=1398&format=png&auto=webp&s=627f3ded47e901c1f9ea97d5416caeea49b9dc3f

2- Scalping using the moving average

Another method is to use moving averages, usually with two relatively short-term and one longer-term to indicate the trend.
In the examples below, on a three-minute chart of the EUR / USD pair , we are using 5- and 20-period moving averages in the short term, and a further 200-period moving averages in the long term. In the first chart, the longer-term moving average is rising, so we expect the five-period moving average to cross above the 20-period moving average, and then we take positions in the direction of the trend. These are marked with an arrow.
https://preview.redd.it/22jquy1z2nw51.png?width=1499&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed4f724384b86f95dff584c596e25652f23f240d
In the second example, the long-term moving average is declining, so we look for short positions when the price crosses below the 5-period moving average, which has already crossed below the 20-period moving average.
https://preview.redd.it/0tl7mky23nw51.png?width=1496&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca7b44138901537185d9e0dbd639a799407ced08
It is important to remember that these trades are trending and that we are not trying to find and capture every move. As in any scalping strategy, it is essential to have good risk management with stops, which is vital to avoid large losses that could eliminate many small gains quickly.
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3- Scalping with the use of the parabolic SAR indicator

The Parabolic SAR is an indicator that highlights the direction in which the market is moving and also tries to provide entry and exit points. SAR is the acronym for ' stop and reversal ', which means stop and revocation. The indicator is a series of points placed above or below the price bars. One point below the price is bullish and one point above it is bearish.
A change in the position of the points suggests that there is going to be a change in trend. The chart below shows the DAX on a five minute chart; You can open short trades when the price moves below the SAR points and long when the price moves above them. As you can see, some trends are quite widespread and at other times a trader will encounter many trades that generate losses.
https://preview.redd.it/35uo837g3nw51.png?width=1498&format=png&auto=webp&s=f020a461c6ff1f8d49fab381da0713b1de75dbf7

4- Scalping using the RSI

Lastly, investors can use an RSI strategy to find entry points that go with the prevailing trend. In the first example, the price is rising steadily, with three higher overall moving averages.
Downs in the trend are to be bought, so when the RSI drops to 30 and then moves above this line, a possible entry point is created.
https://preview.redd.it/fkk1df2k3nw51.png?width=1499&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e9b4c7b1af0d0732793ddf5dc462aeaa7321dc9
Conversely, when the RSI moves to 70 and then begins to decline within the downtrend, an opportunity is created to 'sell the rally', as we have seen in the example below.
https://preview.redd.it/dlq4ge7p3nw51.png?width=1497&format=png&auto=webp&s=10eb4baf8bd92a4e0e33905464859b73871a6201
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What do you have to know before starting scalping strategies Reddit?

The scalping requires the trader has an iron discipline, but also very demanding as far as time is concerned. Although long-term times and smaller sizes allow investors to move away from their platforms, given that there are few possible entries and can be controlled remotely, scalping requires the investor's full attention.
Possible entry points can appear and disappear very quickly and therefore a trader must be very vigilant about his platform. For individuals who have a day job or other activities, scalping is not necessarily an ideal strategy. On the other hand, long-term operations with higher profit objectives are a more suitable option.
It is difficult to execute a successful scalping strategy. One of the main reasons is that many operations need to be performed over time. Some research in this regard usually shows that more frequent investors only lose money faster, and have a negative capital curve. Instead, most investors are more successful and reduce their time commitments to trading, and even reduce stress by using long-term strategies and avoiding scalping strategies.
The scalping requires quick responses to market movements and the ability to forgo an operation if the exact moment has passed. 'Chase' trades, along with a lack of stop-loss discipline, are the key reasons why scalpers are often unsuccessful. The idea of ​​only being in the market for a short period of time sounds appealing, but the chances of being stopped out on a sudden move with a quick correction are high.
Trading is an activity that rewards patience and discipline. Although those who are successful with scalping do demonstrate these qualities, they are a small number. Most investors do better with a long-term view, smaller position sizes, and a less frenetic pace of activity.
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submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

r/ForexFunding

I set up ForexFunding to show people the practical route to getting backed for trading by professional money.

I'm starting with prop shops. These are usually the easiest way to get a bit of cash and establish a track record under controlled risk conditions. I think through prop shop trading I can get somewhere between $3 - 5 million funds under management in the first year. My initial capital outlay to join the prop shop is $270.

I've started with 5%ers. Here's the risk management plan I am going to use. https://www.reddit.com/ForexFunding/comments/jgiht5/5ers_prop_shop_money_management_plan_for_5ers/
submitted by 2020sbear to u/2020sbear [link] [comments]

Forex Day Trading: 3 Mistakes To Avoid

What is Day Trading?
Foreign Exchange Deals that are generally closed on the same day is called Day Trading. Short Term trading is attractive as it offers higher returns but at the same time is dangerous as well. With the advent of internet technology, day trading has become extremely popular among investors and stock market players. Normally Forex day trading involves buying a currency at the prevailing rate and which you feel will rising up towards the end of the day. As soon as the currency value rises you sell it off making a profit for yourself.
What are the mistakes to avoid in Forex?
Forex trading, however enticing it may seem is not fool proof. People usually indulge in cross currency trading like USD to EUR or vice versa. The trick here is to choose your risk quotient by following market trends and doing some research on your own. No matter how much perfect you think your strategy is, you are always advised to tread with caution.
1) Forex Day Trading is not your shortcut to wealth
No matter what you have read on the internet or what stories your other trader pals have told you, you cannot become a millionaire overnight with Forex Trading. However, we are not completely discouraging you as there are many traders who have made their fortunes and many others who still are dependent on it as a means of livelihood. What you need to develop is trading acumen which will help you gain profits.
2) Do not risk more than 1% of Capital
The higher you risk, higher the gains, this strategy is not overtly applicable to day trading Forex. A successful trader will never risk more than 1% of his capital on a single trade. By adopting this method, you ensure that in event of a loss the amount is not too significant.
3) Keeping unrealistic expectations
While starting your trading be fully aware of the market conditions and what you are getting into. Do not blindly foray into it just because somebody promised a windfall. Make sure that you have sufficient financial knowledge about day trading, the terms that are used, what to look out for etc. If you think you will have 5000 USD that will yield you 30000 USD then than it not going to happen. Take help from an expert who is dealing into day trade Forex to learn the finer nuances of the game.
Conclusion
When trading Forex, you should avoid:

submitted by cfdstraded to FOREXTRADING [link] [comments]

broker forex

Hi Guys,
Any recommendation for a broker for forex trading in the UAE, I read about IB and saxobank.
I am looking for a broker with a good, with no or little fees, and as well a good demo to first start and try some strategies, learn about the graphics....
In the idea after I feel confident with my strategy, I would like to start with a small capital 5000-10000AED.
Thanks
submitted by french-peter to dubai [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Gold and Silver rocket ride - 110k in 1 month

Gold and Silver rocket ride - 110k in 1 month
IMPORTANT: OVER 75% OF PEOPLE LOSE MONEY WITH CFD TRADING. IF YOU'RE A NOOB, DON'T EVEN THINK OF OPENING A CFD ACCOUNT. TRY MAKING CONSISTENT MONEY SWING TRADING ASX STONKS FIRST. THEN KEEP DOING THAT UNTIL YOU GET BORED AND WANT TO LOSE BIG MONEY VERY QUICKLY. ONLY THEN YOU MAY HAVE WHAT IT TAKES TO TRADE WITH LEVERAGE.
You most likely don't have my discipline and pain tolerance. Or my feel for risk/reward math. On top of this you need markets to play nice and a bit of luck.
I'm no wiz, but I know my strengths and weaknesses. I smell a good setup and prepare accordingly.
Hope you all nail your big opportunity when it shows up. If not, that's okay too. You'll keep getting chances. Be patient. Focus on small wins. Plus there's far more important things in life than being loaded.
------
How I lost 5k trading CFDs then turned it around
Back in April, I was playing with CFDs and nearly blew up my account. Started with $5k and dropped to almost zero because trading forex with leverage is a very stupid game. This is why IG gives you a demo account. But instead of using the demo account to learn how not to fuck up massively, I was using it to place giant YOLO shorts on US markets.
By being a bit less retarded on the forex trades I clawed back some losses then topped up the account with another $2.5k before starting to open small positions in gold. From 3 to 10 contracts depending on how confident I felt. Then smelling a massive opportunity, I ramped up the leverage by going with much larger positions.
Day 5
https://preview.redd.it/oqd955abwak51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=84aa309284c22117630899e39b8b1bfb89c670f3
Entering the silver trade
It was only after making decent profits in gold that I dared venture into silver. I wanted to enter silver around $18 but missed the boat after waiting too long for a dip. $20 was still great. Tons of upside left.
Silver is one nasty motherfucker to trade. It's a much smaller market than gold so the swings can be wild. Silver will play along nicely then suddenly fuck you really hard. If you use too much leverage you're basically waiting for your account to blow up. Stop losses will save you, but they can also kill your best trades. I didn't bother with stops for most of the ride because I'm an ASX_bets retard but also because I had ultra high conviction in the $25-27 price target.
Started with 25 contracts. I very nearly missed out on this mini pump. Some might call it luck.
Day 18
https://preview.redd.it/de8jozlexak51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=79d174c67a86754c7d9fd78aa594f88282c08834
Adding to my silver positions
Increased my position size once I had a profit buffer to protect against sharp drops. It's WAY easier to blow up a CFD account than it appears. When trades are going well you feel like you can keep adding leverage and make millions. But even small swings will kill you if your positions are too big. Discipline is key.
Buying 50 contracts in silver is not the same as 50 contracts in gold because silver moves are 2-4 times bigger. When gold moves 100 points, expect a 200-400 points move in silver. Having an equal mix of gold an silver contracts helped lower the overall volatility of my account.
Anything over 10 contracts in silver is big. You can lose hundreds within minutes. Buy 50 contracts, the price drops $1 and you're $5000 in the hole. I knew when to push and when to hold back. This was EXTREMELY important. I did not get greedy. I was happy to let price moves do most of the lifting.
Started the day with 3k profits. Went to bed that night with big beautiful bhags. 17k
https://preview.redd.it/qcbeoxvnxak51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=4228593b9d86cc5f0460f44af06c7292ea644625
Day 19
Woke up the next morning with even bigger bhags. 30k
https://preview.redd.it/9b439y5qxak51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=19e3ad27d7237bc88fdeb329ebcd113e11349554
Day 24
More pump. I added 50 silver contracts that day after a decent drop. Profits now up to around 41k.
Held through the big swings...
Like a proper bitch, Silver dropped another 5% soon after I added those 50 contracts and my 41k profit became 20k very suddenly. But no stop loss and I held firmly. What's a 21k drop when you've been down 35k on BBOZ before. Metals bounced back hard later that evening. Still not selling. High conviction made all the difference here.
Five days later and I was up to 50k profit.
At that point, I felt safe enough to add another 50 contracts.
https://preview.redd.it/j2at0n95zck51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a0ea2fabe6a245807fb9ee8a8d0bc4ce854ba3a
And it paid off BIG
Both gold and silver keep pumping. Profit now 86k.
Day 28
https://preview.redd.it/f3pz0an8zck51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ca765b6cad423786dee33a1366c70d324e39b8d
Why sell now?
Not selling yet. GV's silver target was $25-27 so I was confident holding through some wild swings.
GV = Gold Ventures https://twitter.com/thelastdegree
A turbo chad from Belgium who made a massive fortune trading options during 2008-2011 when silver went from $9 to $50 before crashing hard. GV is a certified wizard when it comes to timing the gold and silver cycles. Started with his wife's 32k savings and is now worth 18 million EUR or USD, I'm not sure and who cares. GV is pretty low key but commands plenty of respect from other metal traders on Twitter.
Meanwhile GV was on holiday but still shitting money.
https://preview.redd.it/ixsxwjx30dk51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fd5741634a7a5b0f913f5ea12edf05722f9fddf
GV also has a junior miner portfolio worth several millions. I believe it's true. I went deep into his Twitter history. He was buying heavily into the March crash and some of his picks like AbraPlata have since made 10x. Junior miners are like call options on metal prices with no expiry date but you still need to pick winners and enteexit at the right time.
Magical Six Figure Milestone
Not long after... BOOM! Hit 100k in profit.
When starting, I knew there was potentially 40k-50k to be made from this setup even without playing it perfectly. I would have been okay with 20k.
Day 32
https://preview.redd.it/oy8sqsgz1dk51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8c628670578b81d72b9a41bd9d2307a27a2fbf7
Start taking profits
Silver was still going strong but I felt it was time to de-risk.
So I started taking profits on both gold and silver around that time.
https://preview.redd.it/gvdqs67a2dk51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=64a77d3ccca86fe6e29eb43e0c2eaf096f68867c
Okay I'm out
The way silver kept pumping, I knew a big correction was imminent. By 12pm I was completely out with over 110k profit. Home and dry.
I went on with my daily work routine, a bit more relaxed and not checking charts every 5 minutes.
And then metals dumped hard.
There was money to be made on the short side but there was also a strong possibility of shorts being squeezed. So I didn't bother.
https://preview.redd.it/opoio79i2dk51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=80187384d37e03eec8d01814248bbe4c5a48cc4f
After the dump, I had no appetite to get back in with big positions. In hindsight I could have made tons more if I held to $29 but the ride from $24 to $29 is far more risky than $20 to $26. I'm quite okay with my 40x performance. Plus I needed to reset mentally after this rocket ride. More often than not, the best thing to do after a huge trading win is to take a break. Wisdom gained from the BBOZ days :)
Withdrew my initial capital and 90% of the profits from IG. Left around 6k on the account to keep playing.
https://preview.redd.it/1djdhz1m2dk51.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c028a06d4e0cf73bfb80f8ac48dd18e333b791d4
Feels good to have extra funds to invest with but I also need to set some aside for the monster tax bill next year. You're welcome Australia, and all the JobSeekeJobKeeper leeches.
Hey everyone, check out my insane stats!
That 85% win rate though...
  • IG MARKETS - TRADE ANALYTICS - 29 JUNE TO 29 JULY
https://preview.redd.it/slkmhrlq2dk51.png?width=1272&format=png&auto=webp&s=b15b261144d3cd55c1d28530a80efd30c49f3125
Less impressive when zooming out to include the forex train wreck in April and my more recent metal trades.
  • IG MARKETS - TRADE ANALYTICS - 1 JANUARY TO 17 AUGUST
https://preview.redd.it/jam28zau2dk51.png?width=1272&format=png&auto=webp&s=99fd332c319984f1de28d1ec7e6a58df2754946d
-----
Credits to:
https://twitter.com/thelastdegree - already covered above
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian - called the metals and S&P500 bull runs
https://twitter.com/AdamMancini4 - simple yet powerful charts
https://twitter.com/badcharts1 - advanced silver charts
https://twitter.com/graddhybpc - advanced gold and silver charts
https://twitter.com/Northst18363337 - another master of charts
https://twitter.com/bhagdip143 - ultimate master of monster position and making bhags
BTW fuck Facebook groups, you'll hardly learn anything there. Full of losers. Twitter is where the elite traders and big dick fund managers bounce ideas. A solid Twitter list is worth thousands if not millions in the right hands.
submitted by _HeyHeyHeyyy_ to u/_HeyHeyHeyyy_ [link] [comments]

What Next for a newbie

Hello everyone just finished the book "How to Day Trade for a Living" by Andrew, a great book i made sure to take my time reading and digesting as much as i can and it took me 2 weeks of slow reading and revising everything to finish the book. Anyway i just have few questions and need advice on what to do next.
well that's about it for now sorry if there are basic concepts i still don't understand, i know that reading that book isn't a foundation but just scrapping the surface and i want to prepare for this as optimally as i can.
and Thank you for reading
submitted by Nanoer to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

I have created a monster.

I have been trading for 3 months (6 months demo before that). Up until 3 days ago I have always traded with discipline, set SL, understood risk management and make reports out of downloadable CSV data from the broker. I even journal each trade at the end of the day. Each trade I make risks from 0.5% - 2% depending on how confident I am on the particular trade. The first 2 months of grind made 5% and 7% respectively.
Several days ago, I lost 3 trades in a row and felt like George Costanza. It was especially demoralizing because I followed the technical, fundamental, trend, and confirmed with indicator, etc... yet, each went straight for my SL. I took the day off and reflected on what I did wrong. I lost 6% of my capital that day, a whole month's work.
The very next day, during the Fed chair Powell speech, I focused on EUUSD, and as the chart started to run higher and higher, I am not sure what came over me, I entered long at 1.18401 and risked 20% of my capital. I was going to enter my usual 2% risk, but the greed (subconsciously?) in me added an extra 0. The very second the trade was entered, I felt a hot flash and my heart started pumping, I entered into loss territory, my heart sunk as I watch it go down 10 pips, 15 pips, if only for 15 seconds. Then it started going up, and it was exhilarating watching the profits. I had the good sense to enter TP at 1.189, and it got there 15 minutes later. I had just made a little over 10% of my capital in 15 minutes. Recovered yesterday's 6% loss and then some.
I told my self that this was a one time thing, stupid and impulsive thing to do... until the next day...
I saw a good opportunity with USD/JPY. I didn't even bother to check anything, technical, fundamental, indicators, NOTHING! Just that vertical cliff short candle... , my god, that full short candle, and the speed! This time, very much a conscious decision, I entered short with 30% of my capital at 106.5. 4 hours later, I hit my TP at 105.5. I had made 30% of my capital in 4 hours.
In the last 2 trading days, up 40% of my capital, including my previous 2 months of measly 12% in comparison, I am roughly up 50% of my original capital in 3 months.
This has been a good week to say the least. But I am afraid I have created an insatiable monster. The greed has overtaken good sense, and this is quite possibly the origin story of a blown account.
submitted by DodoGizmo to Forex [link] [comments]

Average annual returns from trading

Hi,
I am buy and hold investor and I own 100+ stocks.
I started short term trading few years ago, mainly for educational purposes, either swing trades with stocks in my portfolio or speculations with stocks and ETFs. Just basic technical and fundamental analysis, StockTwits, most of the time guessing and pure luck :-) I won't bet my living on this income.
I know a guy who has been trading options for several years and his average annual return is ~18%. He works 2 hours every workday on trading. He claims that using his strategy risk is very low and the 18% is a good result for his low-risk low-volatility strategy.
On the other hand I know a guy who has been trading on Forex using lot of algorithmic trading SW for his trades and last year he gave up on this and he said that this is barely profitable comparing to like 2010 when he started to doing it.
So I am curious what is the real expectation (from long term view) of annual return if I decide to start trading for living every day for two hours. (Considering I will educate my self and get better, I am not expecting this from the day one, even from the year one probably)
I started to consider this (Options trading) after I talked with the guy because using my current cash capital gaining 18% annual return working two hours a day? Much better hourly rate then my current job, much more free time and still decent living.
submitted by calmint to Trading [link] [comments]

How can I short bitcoin?

I am a Forex and Futures trader and I would like to get involved with trading bitcoin on the weekend when those markets are closed. It seems to me there isn't a good way to trade bitcoin. Coinbase seems to be the most reliable in that you are trading with actual fiat currency, but you can't short sell which is a huge problem for my strategy. You see, I don't actually believe in all of the hype of this market like 90% of other traders. Instead, I have a concrete trading strategy that makes me over 200% every month that scales well with the more capital that I have. Not being able to use more than 3 x leverage is a huge let down, as it means I have to put in more capital. Forex allows me to trade 50x leverage. That means I can actually day trade starting with only a few thousand. Also with forex you can trade both sides of the market. Coinbase you can only go long and thats it.
I know about bitmex but its not regulated and you basically lose all of your money if they catch you from a restricted country. Not to mention, I don't like the idea of trading bitcoin..... with Bitcoin. What a great idea that was. Even Bybit has a USDT pair but there is such low liquidity I would never be able to get my orders filled. It seems all these exchanges are for small timers who just want to gamble their rent money.
submitted by fdjdsfgndsiufgsn to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Whats next?

Hello my fellow young entrepreneurs,
I have a challenge for you all today. Basically, I have been working for about 1 year with breaks so about 8 months, and managed to make about 5k in profits, which is equal to the minimum wage in my country, as if I was working full time, while I probably input 2-3 hours daily maximum to this project.
My goal, is to outsource, I have been told to try Stocks, try Drop-shipping, try Forex Trading, and I have been wanting to do all these things, but my heart and will doesnt allow me since I believe my capital is not big enough to invest and have a loss.
My question for you all today is, how would you use this 5k that I have, and make more of it, I have tried Instagram theme pages, and they take lots of effort (have an account with 2k and growing), I am starting to try tiktok by posting funny videos, I have always liked photoshop, editing, etc.
One of my main goals, is to create something that will give me a steady income stream. I will love to have something that can be done, and will function for years to come. A business which is going to be scaleable, hopefully someday earning what I earned in a year, in a couple of months.
I appreciate all your help and comments in advance, anything you can help me with I would appreciate it.
P.S. If you do help me out, and I ultimately choose your idea to start a new business, and so called business is profitable, you will receive a bonus for your help!
Thanks again, and have a nice week!
submitted by YoureOnYourOwn02 to Teenagexecutives [link] [comments]

Professional Traders, When Did You Realize That You Found Your Niche?

Hey yall, I've been trading stocks since I was 16 on paper trading, am in school for finance and discovered FOREX while talking to an old Sergeant of mine (he tried to get me to buy into a group lmao). Anyways I didn't buy into the group for obvious reasons but started researching on my own and took the baby pips course. A lot of this seems like common sense to me but from reading the post it looks like it isn't that common at all. I have always been good at math, I'm patient, I am responsible, and I am really feeling like I am finding my calling after consistent double digit pip wins and only 1 double digit pip loss since I have started trading real money. I am curious to see when, for those of you who have turned this into a career, realized that you had a knack for trading. I am skeptical if I can turn profit long term because of the probability of becoming a profitable trader but... if my competition is anything like the average poster in this subreddit I am starting to be more optimistic. I have been following the general consensus advice so far and have turned 20% profit this week. I understand that this level of profit is not sustainable for the long run but am curious to hear from the people who felt the way I do now early on and, discovered their hunch was correct? I had about 2500 start up capital and am just north of 3k currently. At what point did you realize that this is something you want to do for the rest of your life? What are some words of caution you can offer so I don't get swept up by a solid win streak and get cocky?

Edit: 24 years old, just payed my car off and have about 1600 in risk capital per month as well if that helps any
submitted by KnickCage to Forex [link] [comments]

That Time I Gained 337.59% In One Week - Storytime

Just a quick story on my biggest gain in one week, which I'll more than likely never do again because my risk tolerance is not as high anymore.
But before: I highly discourage anyone especially the newbies on here to risk as much or trade in the following manner.
It was late May and I was popping off from paper trading, I must've hit 20+ take profits with no losses. I was growing a demo that I started with $70 two weeks prior and I was already at like $623 lmao, in only two weeks??? So of course I thought I was a god.
I saw some better trades coming up and decided it was time to get back in the market with some real money. I had $75 from freelancing, I got $60 as a covid grant from the government and my mom gave me another $60 to trade in the casino (Forex Market). So it was time.
I got into trades Sunday night (May 31) as soon as the market opened and they were already doing well the next morning. Here's a screenshot I sent showing off my gross trading prowess and the positions I had opened: https://imgur.com/a/GFrcLEu
I stayed diligent and took my setups just as I would in demo, and fast forward: https://imgur.com/a/5JwIDl3
I got way too overwhelmed and closed some shortly after, and ended the week with no losses, 1155.5 pips, 9 trades completed and net $651.41. I thought I was the best trader ever but luckily I withdrew half of it and took my steady, inevitable losses after :)
Here's all the trades I had made (I didn't know about myfxbook but I had recorded all my trades in a nice little excel sheet to help me with risk and I still do - I'm currently making it into a nice little software): https://imgur.com/a/RNtt5wz
The statistics from excel: https://imgur.com/a/8gQlFBU
Strategies: Breakouts, Swings (S/R) and Trends.
Risk Tolerance: I was literally risking about 25% of my account on trades and whenever the trade took off, I considered it 0% risk so I could re-enter more so I didn't have to wait until close.
Why I probably will never gain this much in a week again:
  1. Risking 25% on a trade is downright awful unless your account is super small.
  2. Deeming a trade 0% risk is never true unless you have your sl in profit (most times I didn't).
  3. I'm okay with not gaining quickly, now I'm just about protecting my capital.
What I learnt:
I did take some good trades so there's not much I could've learnt, the weeks after though did teach me:
  1. Not to risk that much on trades
  2. Go for slow and steady gains
  3. Stay out of the market as much as possible.
TLDR: I went from $193.48 - $846.64 in one week by taking big dick risks and then lost half of it later, lol.
submitted by proskaterlegend to Forex [link] [comments]

Should I trade in Options as a beginner?

I'm 21, from India. I used to think that day trading is a gambling. Recently I bought a low penny stock and had great loss.Then I started to dug deeper and I'd Eureka!! moment. Now I know what I want to do for the rest of life.
I've been learning day trading for around a month. But now I'm planning to get into options (as per my budget, I'll be a able to buy around 2 lots with leverage). I just want to know that as a beginner will it be a nice idea to get into options or should I master cash equity first? Forex is a nice option too but Indian govt. allows only 6 pairs. And commodity isn't my cup of my tea for now.
I really think that Options will be perfect for me, I understand the risk and obviously plan my trade with proper risk management. (I'll be selling options with 1:4/1:2)
But I really need guidance from any experienced trader. Also, if possible please do suggest me some books or online resources.
ps: I believe in only price action, I don't use any indicators - no bullshit.(I use indicators just for confirmation sometimes)
My capital is $500 only
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APIs offered by brokers and data platforms

I’ve been looking for a broker that has an API for index futures and ideally also futures options. I’m looking to use the API to build a customized view of my risk based on balances, positions, and market conditions.
Searching the algotrading sub I found many API-related posts, but then when I actually read them and their comments, I found they’re often lacking in real substance. It turns out many brokers or data services that have APIs don’t actually support index futures and options via the API, and instead they focus on equities, forex, or cypto. So here’s the list of what I’ve found so far. This isn’t a review of these brokers or APIs and note that I have a specific application in mind (index futures and futures options). Perhaps you’re looking for an API for equities, or you just want data and not a broker, in which case there may be a few options. Also, I’m based in the US so I didn’t really look for brokers or platforms outside the US.
If you have experience with these APIs, please chime in with your thoughts. Also, I may have missed some brokers or platforms. If I did or if you see anything that needs correction please let me know.

Platform Notes
ADM Investor Services No API
Ally Invest Does not support futures instruments
Alpaca Only supports US Equities
Alpha Vantage Does not support futures instruments
AMP Broker with a huge number of platforms available including some with APIs
ApexFutures No API
Arcade Trader No API
AvaTrade Does not support futures instruments
Backtrader Not a data feed; otherwise looks cool but also looks like a one-man shop
Cannon Trading Broker with a variety of platforms, some have API access such as TT
Centerpoint No API
Charles Schwab API does not support futures instruments
Cobra No API
Daniels Trading No API
Discount Trading Broker with a variety of platforms including CQG, Rithmic, TT, some with APIs
Edge Clear Broker with a variety of platforms including CQG, Rithmic, TT, some with APIs
Eroom Now part of Dashprime. Offer a variety of APIs including CQG, TT, CBOE's Silexx, and others via FIX.
ETNA Trader Only supports equities, options (including multi-legs), ETFs, Mutual Funds (Forex with cryptocurrencies coming soon)
ETrade API seems robust but OAuth authorization needs to be refreshed via login once per 24 hours
Futures Online No API
Gain Capital Futures API available, based on .NET; unsure if they are open to retail clients
GFF Brokers Broker with a large number of platforms including some with API access
High Ridge Futures Broker with a variety of platforms including CQG, Rithmic, TT, some with APIs
iBroker API available; contact them for more info
IEX Cloud Looks great but does not support futures instruments
Infinity Futures JSON API available; contact them for more info
Interactive Brokers Client Web API looks promising if clunky
Intrinio Supports futures instruments but is expensive
Koyfin No API
Lightspeed C++ API available
marketstack API for equities available. Does not support futures instruments.
Medved Trader Windows app with a streaming API to various data sources and brokers. See comment below about API beta access.
NinjaTrader Does not support futures options
Norgate Data Not a broker; supports futures data for $270/year
Oanda Forex only; API last updated in 2018
Optimus Futures Broker with a large number of available platforms including some with API access
Phillip Capital Broker with a large number of available platforms including some with API access
polygon.io Expensive but looks slick; does not support futures instruments
Quandl API looks solid; $49/monthly for personal use, does not allow distributing or sharing data; not a broker
Quantconnect Does not expose raw data
Quantopian Does not expose raw data
Quantower Software that connects to multiple brokers and data feeds; API to their software via C# interface
Saxo Markets Broker with extensively documented API
Stage 5 Trading API available through Trading Technologies
Straits Financial Broker with several platforms available including some with APIs such as CQG, R
Sweet Futures Broker with a large number of available platforms including some with API access
TastyWorks There's an unofficial Python API
TenQuant.io Does not support futures instruments
ThinkorSwim Does not support futures instruments via the API
Tiingo Free account tier but does not support futures instruments
TradePro Broker with a number of platforms available; unclear if any are available with API access
Tradier Free developer API account for delayed data but does not support futures instruments
TradeStation Nice looking API docs and supports futures instruments; requires opening an account and a minimum balance of $100k and there’s no trial available
TradeFutures4Less Broker with a variety of platforms including CQG, Rithmic, TT, some with APIs
TradingTechnologies API looks robust; pricing starts at $700/month
TradingView Does not expose data API
Tradovate Technologies API exists, documentation unknown; need to talk to their account team
Wedbush Futures Broker with several platforms offered, a few of which have API access
WEX .NET/COM only; pricing not disclosed on website
Xignite Pricing not disclosed on website but they do support futures instruments
Yahoo Finance API Available through RapidAPI or via direct access; but it’s discontinued and unreliable
Zaner Broker with a variety of platforms including CQG, Rithmic, TT, some with APIs

Wow, this list grew longer than I originally thought it would be. If you spot a mistake, please let me know and I’ll correct it.
Edit:
- added Lightspeed API - updated Dashprime to indicate some of the APIs available - added Medved Trader to table - added marketstack to table
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Help to set myself realistic expectations

New to posting on Reddit. Looking for some personalized advice and guidance on what to do next.
I had all my eggs in one basket (Tesla) from last year which turned out well. I have about ~$30k cash on hand that I’m itching to invest and would like to learn day trading.
I started my research over a year ago and decided to try Forex over Stocks since I didn’t have the capital to avoid PDT. My MBA got the better of me and my interest in DT halted. Now that’s changed again, I’m honestly not sure where to best start as a beginner; Forex or Stocks? Anyone have their own preferences between the two and why?
I’m seeing a lot about risk and reward ratio - is 1:2 the most standard and any suggestions otherwise?
Risking capital. Is it correct to say that if I don’t want to risk more than 2% per trade, that a capital of ~$30k would let me trade $600 at a time? How much would you then expect to set for risk/reward from a $600 trade?
Trading platform and broker. I have the hardware set up and enjoy looking at numbers and graphs enough to know I’ll enjoy whatever platform I’ll settle for. Downside is, I’ve no idea where to start. Any suggestions for choosing a platform and broker or what I should look for specifically when I compare?
I’m aware I’ll get varying responses and that there are other places I can look to learn. I don’t want to make the mistake of jumping in too early and wiping myself out. I’m happy to use a demo for a few months while I learn, just looking for head start and a way to set my expectations correctly from the get go.
😊
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Pro Traders, What Do You Say When Asked About Your Job?

While things are usually relatively simple together with your relatives and shut friends, speaking about your Forex trading job with people you’ve just met is for the foremost part rather hard.
The poll below is meant for people that are already earning their living (at least partially) through Forex, but the whole post are going to be interesting to anyone who is stepping into exchange trading or financial trading generally because it's strongly connected to one’s social life and to how traders are perceived by the overall public.
Forex trader explains what he does for a living
A Forex trader is misunderstood when he says what he does
The chances are if you're an experienced Forex trader, you've got already answered this question countless times. Unfortunately, for a few unfathomable reason, the trading profession gets some negative reputation from non-trading people. sort of a fellow trader has put it, there's tons of “judgment that comes from preconceived or stereotypical views”. Another one said that “people are generally prejudicial towards ‘day-trading‘”. and therefore the opinion that trading features a “pretty bad connotation” was also mentioned. People might even go as far as think you're some kind of fraudster.
But albeit the knowledge of your profession doesn’t sway people towards inferior opinion about you, they're going to likely start asking many questions: about current and future currency rates, which currency they ought to hold their money in, what proportion does one earn, how they ought to invest money, and so on. and a few people are often very intrusive about it.
In addition to attracting many questions from normal people, being open about your trading career tends to draw in wrong sort of persons too. All kinds of scammers, swindlers, and panhandlers will start seeing you as their appropriate target.
Worse than that, in some countries, Forex trading is prohibited. therein case, it'd be a matter of private safety to return up with a plausible yet untruthful answer when someone gets interested by how you earn your daily bread.
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At first glance the difficulty at hand might sound sort of a laughable matter that mostly concerns unsociable introverts, but actually , it's much deeper. The roots of the matter run
into the important social stigma attached to both financial trading generally and Forex especially .
I often say either that i'm online entrepreneur or that i'm a programmer because I hate explaining what Forex is which it isn’t a scam (Forex trading has this reputation where I live). If i'm certain about the one who asks that he or she know what Forex trading is, then I usually just say that i'm a trader.
What's your go-to answer about your job?
Forex trader (truth).
Fund manager (you are managing your funds!)
Analyst/Consultant (mostly true for all traders)
Programmer (if you automate your trading)
Business owner (trading may be a business after all)
Gambler (there may be a grain of truth in it!)
Self-employed (or something similarly vague)
Unemployed (lie)
Just some random profession (lie)
Other (Please specify in comments.)
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Top 5 Most Famous Traders Of All Time

In all industries there are people credited to being the simplest .
In design, the late Steve Jobs is credited to being the simplest in his industry. In boxing, Muhammad Ali was credited to being the simplest boxer of all time.
In U.S. politics, there's a consensus that Lincoln was the nation’s greatest President by every measure applied.
In the trading world, a variety of traders are known worldwide for his or her skills. From Jesse Livermore to George Soros, we are sharing these tales of past and present traders who had to claw their thanks to the highest .
Here, we'll check out the five most famous traders of all time and canopy a touch bit about each trader and why they became so famous.
Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore jumped into the stock exchange with incredible calculations at the age of 15, amassed huge profits, then lost all of them , then mastered two massive crises and came out the opposite side while following his own rules, earning him the nickname “The Great Bear of Wall Street.”
Livermore was born in 1877 in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts.
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He is remembered for his incredible risk taking, his gregarious method of reading the potential moves within the stock exchange , derivatives and commodities, and for sustaining vast losses also as rising to fortune.
He began his career having run far away from home by carriage to flee a lifetime of farming that his father had planned for him, instead choosing city life and finding work posting stock quotes at Paine Webber, a Boston stockbroker.
Livermore bought his first share at 15 and earned a profit of $3.12 from $5 after teaching himself about trends.
George Soros
George Soros has a fantastic backstory.
Born in Hungary in 1930 to Jewish parents, Soros survived the Holocaust and later fled the country when the Communists took power. He went on to become one among the richest men and one among the foremost famous philanthropists within the world.
Most day traders know him for his long and prolific career as a trader who famously “broke the Bank of England” in 1992. Soros made an enormous bet against British Pound, which earned him $1 billion in profit in only 24 hours.
Along with other currency speculators, he placed a bet against the bank’s ability to carry the road on the pound. He borrowed pounds, then sold them, helping to down the worth of the currency on forex markets and ultimately forcing the united kingdom to crash out of the ecu rate of exchange Mechanism.
It was perhaps the quickest billion dollars anyone has ever made and one among the foremost famous trades ever taken, which later became referred to as “breaking the Bank of England”.
Soros is believed to have netted a complete of about $44 billion through financial speculation. And he has used his fortune to find thousands of human rights, democracy, health, and education projects.
Richard Dennis
There are only a couple of traders which will take a little amount of cash and switch it into millions and Richard Dennis was one among them.
Known as the “Prince of the Pit”, Dennis is claimed to have borrowed $1,600 when he was around 23 years old and turned it into $200 million in about 10 years trading commodities. Even more interesting to notice , he only traded $400 of the $1,600.
Not only did he achieve great success as a commodities trader, he also went on to launch the famous “Turtle Traders Group”. Using mini contracts, Dennis began to trade his own account at the Mid America commodities exchange .
He made a profit of $100,000 in 1973. The subsequent year, he capitalized on a runway soybean market to earn $500,000 in profits. He became an impressive millionaire at the top of the year.
However, he incurred massive losses within the Black Monday stock exchange crash in 1987 and therefore the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
While he's famous for creating and losing tons of cash , Dennis is additionally famous for something else – an experiment. He and his friend William Eckhardt recruited and trained traders, a couple of men and ladies, the way to trade futures. These so-called Turtle Traders went on to form profits of $175 million in 4 years, consistent with a former student.
Paul Tudor Jones
Paul Tudor Jones thrust into the limelight within the 80s when he successfully predicted the 1987 stock exchange , as shown within the riveting one hour documentary called “Trader”.
The legendary trader was born in Memphis, Tennessee in 1954. His father ran a financial and legal trade newspaper. While he was in college, he want to write articles for the newspaper under the pseudonym, “Eagle Jones”.
Jones began his journey within the finance business by trading cotton. He started trading on his own following 4 years of non-trading experience, made profits from his trades but got bored, and later hired people to trade for him so he would not get bored.
But the trade that shot him to fame came on Black Monday in 1987, when he made an estimated $100 million whilst the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22%.
He became a pioneer within the area of worldwide macro investing and was an enormous player within the meteoric growth of the hedge fund industry. He's also known for depending on currencies and interest rates.
He founded his hedge fund, Tudor Investment Corp, in 1980. The fund currently has around $21 billion in assets under management and he himself has an estimated net worth of nearly $5.8 Billion.
John Paulson
Super-trader John Paulson built a private fortune worth $4.4 billion from managing other people’s money. Born in 1955, Paulson made his name and far of his money betting a huge amount of money against the U.S. housing market during the worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008.
Paulson bought insurance against defaults by subprime mortgages before the market collapse in 2007. He netted an estimated $20 billion on the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, dubbed the best trade ever.
However, his diary since that bet has been patchy at the best . Within the years following the financial crisis, Paulson struggled to match this success.
Failed bets on gold, healthcare and pharmaceutical stocks caused investors to escape his hedge fund Paulson & Co, cutting its assets under management to $10 billion as of January 2020 from a high of $36 billion in 2011.
Earlier this year, Paulson announced the fund would stop managing money for outdoor clients and switch it into a family office. He launched the fund in 1994.
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